Blue Jays Bullpen is a Dumpster Fire

Toronto Blue Jays fans are down bad right now

Don’t believe me? Go read their Instagram comments after a loss. The comment section is currently filled with a lot of “fire montoya” and “get a f*cking bullpen” comments. Truth is, it’s understandable. The brand of baseball that the Blue Jays are playing right now is extremely frustrating to watch.

What’s the problem?

It’s not the Blue Jays offense, which is firing on all cylinders. Vladimir Guerrero Jr is probably the American League MVP so far, Bo Bichette is extremely fun to watch, Marcus Semien has been an excellent free agent acquisition, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez have been great, and the plug and play guys have been perfectly adequate. It’s also not the starting pitching which has been better than expected. No, the problem is their bullpen.

How bad is it?

Real bad. The bullpen this season has accounted for 17 of the Blue Jays 34 losses. If you suck at math… that’s 50%. Most of these losses are recent too, causing the Jays to drop 7 of their last 10 games, and subsequently fall to 4th place in the AL East. If the bullpen could have cut those losses down to 7, they’d be tied with the Rays for 1st in the division. Hurts, don’t it?

What has gone wrong?

Plain and simple, this is the direct result of a crazy amount of injuries to significant arms. For those that have been watching all season, you’ll remember that early this season the bullpen was one of their best assets. They kept the Jays in a ton of tight matchups while the offense struggled to find it’s footing early on. Julian Merryweather was dotting 99 and closing out games, while Romano was de-escalating high leverage situations. The likes of David Phelps, Rafael Dolis, and Ryan Borucki were also doing a great job covering tight innings.

The Damage

Since that good start, the Blue Jays have been absolutely sabotaged by injury. Here’s a look at the currently injured bullpen arms:

10 Day IL

Rafael Dolis (Middle Finger Strain - Return TBD)
Ryan Borucki (Forearm Flexor Strain - Potentially late June

60 Day IL

Julian Merryweather (Oblique Stain - Potentially late June)
David Phelps (Right Lat Surgery - Out for Season)
AJ Cole (Left Oblique Strain - Potentially early August)
Thomas Hatch (Right Elbow Impingement - Potentially late June)
- Likely to come back as a starter, but could be a bullpen arm
- Could move a TJ Zeuch type to a long relief bullpen role
Carl Edwards Jr. (Left Oblique Strain - likely long term)
Tommy Milone (Left Shoulder Inflammation - TBD)
Kirby Yates (Tommy John Surgery - Out for Season
- 0 games played in 2021

Chaos.

Where do we place the blame?

Dolis, Borucki, Merryweather, Phelps, Cole, and Hatch are all solid arms that can, and have contributed to a strong bullpen when healthy. And let’s not forget that their best reliever, Jordan Romano, also spent time on the IL. Oh, and the proven closer that they went out and got in the off season, Kirby Yates, needed season ending Tommy John surgery. That is all to say, don’t blame GM Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro. The organization did an excellent job piecing together an above league average bullpen coming into this season. The standard MLB bullpen carries 8 relievers. 7 of those original 8 are currently injured, and pretty much everyone has been on the IL at some point this season.

You also should not be placing ALL of the blame on manager Charlie Montoyo. Yes it is true, he has made the occasional questionable decision, but who among us hasn’t? The fact is, he’s dealing with the shit hand that he was dealt. It is quite literally impossible to manage a bullpen that forces you to use the likes of Tim Mayza, Anthony Castro, and Tyler Chatwood in high leverage situations. As I mentioned earlier, the bullpen was great early, and Charlie should be given some credit for his role in it’s management at that time.

Don’t even blame the pitchers. Listen; Romano has been good, and Joel Payamps has been a nice surprise. They are doing their job. The rest of the guys are a bunch of bums who wouldn’t be on the big league roster if they didn’t have to be. How are you going to blame bad pitchers for pitching badly? It’s what they do best. “DOLIS IS TRASH, HE NEEDS TO GO!” Yes, Dolis has been very bad, especially lately. Before you come for his job, hear me out. Last season, Rafael Dolis outperformed his 3.02 FIP to put up a tidy 1.50 ERA. This caused the Blue Jays coaching staff to over value him coming into this season. When everyone went down, the Blue Jays began asking way too much of him. More often then not, if you put a mediocre pitcher like Rafael Dolis into a role usually filled by an ELITE reliever, he’s going to fail. That’s exactly what happened. Dolis was being tasked with a ton of high stress, important innings, and it burned him out. Not to mention, he’s now hurt. This makes you wonder, was he trying to pitch through an injury for a good chunk of his struggles? So please, leave him alone.

“BUT I’M ANGRY, AND I NEED A SCAPEGOAT!”

I hear ya. Here’s who you need to blame; the injury bug. It truly all comes down to injuries. If you need actual humans to blame, maybe you could blame the training staff? But given the fact that injuries are up a ridiculous 30% league wide, it’s probably not their fault either. At least, up until this point. From this point forward, there will certainly be opportunities to point the finger.

How Can They Fix This Skid?

Clearly, the Blue Jays need bullpen help. Most of these relievers are a ways away, and there will likely be more injuries on the horizon. The front office needs to address the bullpen immediately. Free agency is thin, so this likely means they will need to make a trade. Please understand, these trades don’t happen out of thin air. If you want to fix the bullpen and get some good arms, you’ll have to pay for it. Luckily for the Blue Jays, they have an excellent farm system, so they can stand to lose a prospect or two for immediate reinforcements.

Trade Targets

Competitive teams aren’t going to want to trade away relievers, so you should be looking at the bad teams. We’re talking Detroit, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Texas, and the likes. Here are some likely available arms that would be a good addition to the pen:

Richard Rodriguez and Chris Stratton - Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh seems like an obvious trade partner for the Blue Jays this season. Richard Rodriguez is currently a great closer on a bad team. He’s got 7 saves to go along with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. His 1.99 FIP backs up his great numbers. He’s a legit arm, and one that could really help solidify the late innings for the Jays. He’s 31 years old, and eligible for arbitration at the end of the season, so he’s not going to be part of Pittsburgh’s rebuild, and therefore available. He is likely the best reliever that is readily available at this point.

In that same bullpen is another solid reliever in Chris Stratton. He’s in the same boat as Rodriquez contract wise, so Pittsburgh is likely fine to part with him. He has a 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP so far in 2021. His 3.88 FIP shows that there may be a little regression coming, but even so he remains a solid option.

The Blue Jays could very well be considering some sort of package deal that could bring both of these arms to Buffalo (or wherever location they’re calling home at the time of the deal). This would likely be a little more expensive of a deal, like it or not, you’d have to part with a decent prospect. Given the Blue Jays dire situation and real shot at the playoffs this year, I’d say it’s worth it. If the Jays are still in need of a catcher, maybe they could even look at taking Jacob Stallings from the Crew as well.

Taylor Rogers - Minnesota Twins

At the time I’m writing this the Twins are 27-41 and last place in the AL Central. However, I’m not sure they’re ready to concede yet, so maybe Rogers isn’t available. But if he is, lefty reliever Taylor Rogers is a very eye-catching option. Rogers has been a solid piece for the Twins since 2016, and is headed into arbitration and then UFA in 2022 and 2023. Depending where the Twins think they are as an organization, he could be an amazing addition to the Jays pen. Rogers has a 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an eye popping 12.4 K/9. He has a funky delivery and nasty stuff, so Blue Jays fans would love him. Given his track record and recent success, he would likely be one of the most expensive bullpen arms on the market.

Yimi Garcia - Miami Marlins

Garcia is currently enjoying a nice season in Miami with 11 saves, and a 2.77 ERA. A lot of teams certainly have their eye on him. He is scheduled to become a UFA at the end of the season, so the Marlins will likely move him before the trade deadline. Yimi has benefitted from some good luck this season, but he’s definitely still an intriguing option.

Daniel Bard - Colorado Rockies

The 36 year old Bard is still chuckin’ it. He’s arb eligible in the off season, and Colorado is just beginning it’s rebuild. This is an obvious trade candidate, and I must say, I like this option. Bard has a respectable 3.86 ERA, and his 120 ERA+ and 3.38 FIP would indicate moving away from Coors Field could bring that down lower. This wouldn’t be a blockbuster deal like the one that brought a decrepit Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto, but it has the potential to be much better for the Blue Jays.

Ian Kennedy - Texas Rangers

Another old man that is still chucking it is former KC Royal, Ian Kennedy. Like Bard, he is 36 years old but has been solid this season as the Rangers closer. He has 12 Saves, 2.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 3.53 FIP. The righty would be a solid addition to the bullpen, bringing both talent and a strong veteran presence with playoff experience. He enters the unrestricted free agent market at the end of the season.

Kendall Graveman - Seattle Mariners

Former Blue Jay who was dealt in what turned out to be a steal of a trade for Toronto is having a career year with the Mariners. He currently has a 0.96 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and a wild 426 ERA+. He’s probably bound for some regression, but even so, remains an interesting option. Graveman is 30 years old and entering UFA in the off-season. His poor track record, and pending free agency could make him an affordable, low-risk, high-reward type of option.

Other notable, potentially cheaper options:

Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles (MIN)
Daniel Hudson (WSH)
Joakim Soaria (AZ)
Cole Sulser (BAL)
Jose Cisnero, Michael Fulmer (DET)
Greg Holland (KC)

The Wrap

The Blue Jays clearly need bullpen help, and they need it fast. The only way they’re going to get it at this point is by making a trade or 2. Why wait until the trade deadline when you need help now? Go out and get the guys you want NOW. The losses are piling up, and you need to stop the skid before this gets out of hand. If you wait till the trade deadline, the damage might already be done. In this competitive AL East, every win matters.

The Blue Jays Bullpen is a Dumpster Fire