Moving On From Shohei Ohtani: How the Blue Jays Can Improve Their Lineup in Free Agency
Improving the Blue Jays 2024 Lineup in Free Agency
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
Swing and a Miss on Shohei Ohtani
The talk for most of 2023 was that Shohei Ohtani was going to be traded by the deadline with his free agency pending. Instead, the Angels shocked the world and decided to go “all-in” making trades for the Reynaldo Lopez’s and Randall Grichuck’s of the world in a desperate attempt to grab a wild-card shot and give their fans a Shohei Ohtani playoff experience, likely knowing it was their last chance to do so.
Their plan failed miserably as many predicted it would, and they are now Shohei-less and also none-the-richer in prospects. Nice work guys.
Most experts and non-experts alike (ourselves included) always had Shohei Ohtani going to the Dodgers. The fit was perfect. Big market, big-budget team that will do everything in their power to build a winner around him, west coast for visits to Japan and his alleged Hawaiian girlfriend, and the ability to be about the 500th most notable celebrity in the city. The fact that the Dodgers were unusually quiet the last 2 seasons in terms of free agents and blockbuster trades also hinted at the fact that they were saving up for a $700 Million dollar investment in Ohtani.
However, by late November, and especially early December, the word was that the Blue Jays were a serious player in the sweepstakes. That hype gained serious momentum on Monday, December 4th when reports came out that Shohei was visiting the Blue Jays player complex in Dunedin Florida. Still, the real climax came on Friday when social media was convinced that Shohei was on a flight to Toronto aboard his private plane, and Dodgers Nation and Sports Illustrated articles announced Shohei was indeed about to sign with Toronto. However, it was all fiction. Shohei was at home in SoCal and would announce on his personal IG Saturday that he was going to sign with the Dodgers.
Of course, this news broke the hearts of many Jays fans because it felt as though we were so close. Realistically, we never should have fallen for it. He was always destined to be a Dodger.
Can the Blue Jays Still Be Good Without Shohei?
So how will the Blue Jays rebound from this heartbreak? Well, it won’t be with a Juan Soto trade, as he was traded to the Yankees for about 30% of their pitching.
I believe there is still enough in free agency to make this Blue Jays lineup better than they were last year, which is ultimately their main goal. Let’s start by assessing their needs.
Prior to what most believe, the Jays actually did not struggle to produce offence last year; they only struggled to produce runs. It was less about struggling to get base hits and more about failing to cash in with runners on base. They struggled to drive runners in both via base hits with RISP and by a surprising lack of home runs.
Who the Blue Jays are (potentially) Losing in Free Agency
Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
Matt Chapman (3B), Brandon Belt (DH/1B), Kevin Kiermaier (CF), and Whit Merrifield (2B/OF) are all free agents as it stands on December 10th, 2023. I personally don’t think it should be overly difficult to fill these holes, even improve on them.
On the pitching side of things, Jordan Hicks (RP) and Hyun Jin-Ryu (SP) are also UFAs. But that’s an article for a different time. The focus of this article is to improve the lineup and defensive alignment in free agency, but we have an article about the Jays pitching coming soon. Follow us on Instagram or subscribe to our newsletter for an update when it drops.
Let’s start with the position players and lineup:
Replacing Matt Chapman and 3B
There is no denying that Matt Chapman offers a lot defensively at 3B; more than any other 3B currently available. Still, beyond a scorching April, his offensive output the rest of the way was actually a bit of a black hole in the lineup. As one of the top free agents and a Scott Boras client, he will command significant investment that in my opinion, may not be a very strong investment. Still, the potential remains that he could return to Toronto… at the very least covering his potential loss.
Justin Turner: My top pick as a replacement should Chapman not return is 38-year-old Justin Turner. Despite his age, Turner provided the Red Sox a .276 average, .807 OPS, 23 Homers, 96 RBI and a whole lot of veteran experience in the clubhouse. He has also been very consistent throughout his whole career. He is a guy who wants nothing more than winning and will produce unselfish at-bats that the Blue Jays did not have last season. Defensively, he’ll make the plays he should make but will not get to some balls Chapman would be able to. He can also cover 1B as he did for much of 2023 with Boston, and could take days at DH while the Jays bench pieces like Santiago Espinal or Cavan Biggio fill in at 3B. Still, the potential offensive upgrade and cost savings (1-2 years around $8.5 million) make him a safer bet than an expensive Chapman.
Gio Urshela: A less exciting option should the Jays miss on Turner and Chapman is Gio Urshela. He is the best defensive option available at the position outside of Chapman, and he has been slightly above a league-average hitter for his career. Signing Urshela would fill a need at 3B, but you would still need to make up Chapmans lost WAR elsewhere. Check out his numbers for yourself.
Replacing Brandon Belt and the DH
Belt was pretty solid last year but there are several hitters available now that I believe are an upgrade and a better fit for the Jays. This pool of free agency is quite deep in my opinion and offers the most potential for the Blue Jays to improve their offence with a strong value pick-up.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
J.D Martinez: The 35-year-old veteran is my top pick as the Blue Jays new designated hitter. As true a DH as there is on the market, the Shohei signing all but marks the end of his career as a Dodger. With an expected contract looking like a 1-year deal worth about $15 million, he is a low-risk signing that would make this lineup significantly better. He would slot in as an excellent cleanup hitter who could drive in the top 3 much more consistently than the revolving door of cleanup hitters in 2023. J.D. had 33 HR, 103 RBI, .273 BA, and an OPS+ of 134 in 2023.
Rhys Hoskins: A torn ACL in 2023 spring training cost Rhys his season with the Phillies, and he enters the 2024 off-season as a free agent going on 31 years old. He has a career OPS+ of 125 and has eclipsed the 25-homer mark in 4/6 seasons. This has earned him a market value of 4 years, $84 million (per Spotrac). He doesn’t offer much defensively, but could occasionally cover 1B if needed. Based on his consistency over his career, I’d be thrilled to have Rhys step in as the Blue Jays new cleanup hitter in 2023.
Jorge Soler: The Blue Jays bats lacked thump last year, and Jorge Soler has no shortage of thunder in his bat. Last year Soler clubbed 36 homers in 137 games played. He also got on base at a .341 clip. Estimated to make about $14 million and secure about 4 years, he could end up being a very valuable signing. As is the case for all of the players in this section, he’d fit nicely as a DH and cleanup hitter. The only reason I don’t have him ahead of Hoskins and J.D. Martinez as my top pick is because he has displayed more volatility on a year-to-year basis, both with injuries and performance. Still, I think he would be an excellent addition to this lineup.
Mitch Garver: It’s undeniable that Garver’s .870 OPS and 19 homers in 87 games helped the Texas Rangers become World Series Champions in 2023. It was a positive contribution, and that’s what Toronto is looking for: positive contributors. Garver also gave the Rangers 230 innings behind the dish, serving as the teams back-up catcher and designated hitter for all of the games he was available. Garver has always been a great hitter when healthy, but injuries have kept him from ever participating in more than 102 games. The good news is that the Blue Jays already have Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen behind the plate, which would allow Garver to significantly reduce his workload and potentially stay healthier than he has been. In line to fetch an AAV of about $10 for approximately 3 years, Mitch Garver is a great value option that gives the Blue Jays flexibility and power.
Joc Pederson: Joc is basically the last free agent DH I’d be (reasonably) excited about. His career has some ups and downs, with more ups and respectable career numbers that make me think he’d be a strong addition. My biggest pause with Joc is that he is not necessarily a set it and forget it type of DH like the guys mentioned above, as his splits against lefties are not good (.621 OPS in 607 PA). If all of the other guys are unavailable, Joc is the last viable option I see at DH. Plus the Jays Shop could sell some pearl necklaces to recoup some of his expected $15.8M AAV.
Replacing Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier in the Outfield
KK and Whit Merrifield were both strong contributors for the Blue Jays last season, offering some batting average, speed, and strong defense (elite in the case of Kevin Kiermaier). With the Blue Jays committed to Daulton Varsho for the next few years, it seems all but guaranteed he will be their centerfielder unless Kiermaier returns. Varsho was one of, if not the best defensive outfielder in baseball last year in terms of DWar and Defensive Runs Saved, depending which websites you use. I don’t see much value in having Whit return, as Espinal and Biggio can pretty much cover his loss between themselves, and it seems like the Blue Jays agree and will move on without him.
Photo by Matt Dirksen/Getty Images
Cody Bellinger: Without a shadow of a doubt, the reigning comeback player of the year is the most popular outfielder in this free agent class. Bellinger is a fantastic defender who may be the only other guy outside of KK that would keep Varsho in Left Field. As if that wasn’t enough, he also played 421 innings at 1B for the Cubs last season. His defensive contributions, 26 homers, 20 steals, and .307/.351/.525 slash line made him a 4.4 WAR player (according to baseball reference) in 2023. It’s not all gravy though, as an investment in Cody Bellinger also carries some significant risk. Take a look at his numbers in his previous 3 seasons:
Via Baseball Reference
In 2019, he won the MVP. So it’s not like he is guaranteed to repeat a great season, and the proof is right there. However, 2023 was less of a return to form, and more of a shift in approach. His hard hit%, barrel%, and average exit velocity all ranked in the 27th or lower percentile according to Baseball Savant. All of his expected numbers were also far lower than his actual numbers (.268 XBA vs .307 BA), which generally points to a sign of regression. However, maybe his shifted approach of not trying to kill the ball and rather placing base hits all over the field is sustainable. It remains to be seen if the Blue Jays think an investment well north of $100 Million would be a wise one.
Outfield Free Agents Beyond Cody Bellinger
The remaining outfield pool of free agents is not overly exciting and does not offer the same level of offensive upside as the DH pool. Still, there are some pretty good options to add a 3rd (or 4th if Bellinger signs) outfielder.
Two Former Blue Jays may be the best available options beyond Bellinger. The Blue Jays dealt Lourdes Gurriel Jr to the Arizona Diamondbacks, seemingly as a throw-in piece, alongside top prospect Gaby Moreno for Daulton Varsho after the 2022 season. Thanks in part to a great year from Lourdes (24 HR, 82 RBI, 108 OPS+), the Dbacks won that trade handily when just looking at 2023. He is now a free agent and will likely command about $15 Million a year in a deal worth about $70 Million+. He is a more capable, although shaky at times, defender than the next player.
Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Teoscar Hernandez is a beloved Blue Jays Alum who was dealt to Seattle for Erik Swanson before the 2023 season. This broke the hearts of many Jays fans, although the excellent performance of Swanson helped us heal. After a shaky start in Seattle, Teo bounced back with a nice year offensively (26 Homers, 93 RBI, .258 BA). Of course, we did not miss his horrendous defense, which remains his biggest downside. He is set to make about $65 million in what would be a 4-year deal.
Though the thought of a reunion with these Blue Jays legends is fun, they both seem somewhat unlikely. Ross Atkins has shown himself to be a guy that moves on and does not look back, and the Blue Jays commitment to improving defense does not exactly align with Lourdes, and definitely do not with Teo.
Tommy Pham is an intriguing option who would be a great complementary piece to a lineup that would include the Blue Jays core, a new DH, and Cody Bellinger; but he is not a centerpiece. Pham had a very good postseason for the Diamondbacks but is as streaky as they come offensively. That is why having him as a 4th/depth outfielder would be preferable to having him full-time. He also offers some speed off the bench and is a capable defender.
Other options: Kevin Kiermaier remains an option. Eddie Rosario hit 21 homers last year, Michael Brantley has been a solid hitter his whole career, but neither is very good defensively.
Blue Jays Internal Options to Replace Lost Players:
We also cannot rule out the fact that the Blue Jays may opt for internal prospects like Addison Barger (3B/OF), Damiano Palmegiani (INF), or Orelvis Martinez (INF) instead of going the free-agent route.
The Jays also seem pretty comfortable leaving 2B as a revolving door with some combination of Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, and Santiago Espinal slotting in there. I don’t expect that to change in 2023 and believe their focus is elsewhere positionally.
My Ideal Blue Jays 2024 Opening Day Lineup:
George Springer (RF)
Bo Bichette (SS)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (1B)
Cody Bellinger (LF)
J.D Martinez (DH)
Justin Turner (3B)
Daulton Varsho (CF)
Davis Schneider (2B)
Danny Jansen ( C )
Bench: Tommy Pham (OF), Alejandro Kirk ( C ), Cavan Biggio (UTIL), Santiago Espinal (INF)
Thanks for Reading
Whatever the 2024 Blue Jays team looks like, here’s to hoping it’s a lot more fun than 2023!
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